by Brian Swerdlow
Artificial intelligence (AI) is poised to transform the workforce, bringing both opportunities and challenges. Predictions suggest that AI will significantly impact job tasks for a substantial portion of the workforce, potentially automating thirty percent or more of work hours. Despite these impending changes, businesses and Congress have done little to address the potential labor market disruptions and protect both private sector and government workers effectively.
AI’s integration into the workplace is expected to boost global gross domestic product by seven percent, but it also presents substantial risks, particularly for knowledge workers. Initially, professional jobs, such as office support and legal positions, are likely to be the first affected, but the impact will span multiple industries. A recent roundtable on AI’s impact highlighted an eighteen-month window for AI adoption, emphasizing the need for proactive measures to avoid harmful labor market outcomes.
The transition to an AI-driven future will require shared benefits and clear pathways to good jobs. Estimates indicate that by 2030, twelve million occupational transitions may be necessary in the United States due to evolving technology and work nature. Ensuring that workers benefit from AI advancements is crucial for gaining their acceptance of automation.
So, who’s responsible for protecting workers?
Responsibility for supporting workers and businesses in this AI transition is a contentious issue. Tech leaders have suggested that the government should take the lead in financing worker transitions. Many big tech companies have invested significantly in universal basic income, proposing it as a government-led solution to the economic upheaval caused by AI. The White House has shown commitment to advancing AI responsibly, as evidenced by directives requiring directing the US Department of Labor (DOL) to analyze its ability to support workers displaced by AI. This analysis includes evaluating current workforce and education programs and potential legislation.
The DOL’s Trade Adjustment Assistance program, or TAA, which provided retraining, income support, job search assistance, healthcare benefits, and relocation aid, offers valuable lessons for future AI-focused policies. Since its inception in 1974, TAA has served over five million workers, demonstrating bipartisan support. There is much evidence that participants had excellent outcomes. However, the TAA faced criticism for limited awareness, accessibility challenges, narrow eligibility requirements, and bureaucratic inefficiencies.
To address the challenges posed by AI, Congress could consider several policies based on the successes and shortcomings of TAA. Some things that could be done include:
Providing incentives for re-skilling: Legislation could be drafted to encourage apprenticeships aligned with good jobs. Registered apprenticeships, which combine on-the-job training with classroom instruction, are well-suited to prepare workers for new AI-related roles. States such as South Carolina have seen success with tax incentives for employers offering apprenticeship. Such a model could be expanded nationally.
Giving supplements to workers and businesses: Similar to Short-Time Compensation, also known as “work sharing,” AI Adjustment Assistance could include partial unemployment compensation for employees facing reduced work hours. This approach can help companies retain talent while the federal government replaces a portion of workers’ reduced earnings through unemployment benefits. Extending unemployment insurance for AI-displaced workers and providing wage insurance for older workers could further support those affected by AI.
Expanding Eligibility and Oversight. AI Adjustment Assistance should establish broad eligibility for workers affected by AI, considering job losses due to increased automation. The federal government could use AI and other research methods to review labor market data and determine eligibility, addressing previous critiques of worker accessibility.
AI and automation pose distinct challenges compared to free trade, impacting workers across various wage levels and regions. This cross-party issue offers an opportunity to build bipartisan consensus around supporting workers and seizing technological advancements.
An AI Adjustment Assistance program alone won’t solve all the challenges of an increasingly automated future. Still, but it could be a critical first step. Research suggests a broader strategy using AI for societal benefits while buffering negative impacts, such as job losses. Policymakers should focus on creating a future where AI complements workers, raises productivity, and addresses humanity’s most pressing issues.
The future of AI remains unpredictable, so our collective goal should be to shape it proactively. By leveraging AI’s potential for positive impact and addressing its risks, we can create an inclusive, productive future for all workers.
